Tom Johansmeyer
Manhattan - http://migrantblogger.wordpress.com
Tom Johansmeyer is a New York-based writer specializing in travel, cigars, art and finance.
Click on a label to read posts from that part of the world.
Tom Johansmeyer
Manhattan - http://migrantblogger.wordpress.com
Tom Johansmeyer is a New York-based writer specializing in travel, cigars, art and finance.
Imagine what would be pretty much a perfect world, at least for airline CEOs. You're running a reasonable profit – let's say 10 percent, enough to keep the shareholders off their backs. And, they're growing annually at a low double-digit rate, as well. Again, the shareholders are seeing an upside, so there's no pressure on the airline's management. Since the numbers being posted are healthy, the need for cutthroat competition evaporates, and passengers make their choices by destination and service, the latter playing a minor role, because in this perfect world, service is pretty much consistent (and high) from one airline to the next.
Blissful, right? Well, it's just about impossible.
What shatters this fantasy, in which Santa's the pilot and the tooth fairy is pushing the drink cart, is the concept of price. The travel market – like any market – doesn't carve itself up neatly into the best possible outcomes for all involved. Some people make fantastic decisions, while others behave like morons. The leaders of each company think they can find an edge. Even in the perfect world described above, the mere possibility of an advantage can send the whole system into mayhem, but we'll get to that in a moment.
It's been a tough month year decade for the airline industry. In the United States, it's lost $58.5 billion and cut 158,000 jobs. There never seems to be an answer, and news of an industry in jeopardy has become routine. So, .
But, it will be different this time. Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood says it will not be "just another advisory committee."
On his Department of Transportation blog, LaHood writes, "I am not commissioning some report to fill space on my bookshelf. This committee will make a difference."
He continues:
"Look, without a financially strong aviation industry, we will be unable to compete in domestic and international commerce. We could also fall behind in addressing our own infrastructure needs. So we must begin this important conversation in order to ensure a viable, competitive U.S. aviation industry."
But, he has his work cut out for him, as does the advisory committee. The estimated price tag to fix the most vexing problems the industry faces is $20 billion. And, many of the recommendations from the last two panels were never implemented.
Contract negotiations between American Airlines and its flight attendants have stalled. So, the flight attendants kicked off a fake strike on Wednesday. At Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport, they picketed, handed out leaflets and wore red badges, showing flights they feel couldn't run without them. So, just think of how strong a real strike would have been! Similar protests were held at 12 other airports, as well.
Because of federal laws that intentionally make it difficult for airline industry employees to strike, the fake alternative was the best that could be summoned, at least on short notice. USA Today reports that gauging public support for a flight attendant strike is difficult, but union officials seem unwilling to roll the dice by disrupting flights, especially with the holiday season coming. Smart move: if fliers have demonstrated anything this year, it's that they don't give a shit about the airlines. They just want to get from Point A to Point B for as low a fare as possible.
And, public sentiment aside, it's hard to draw blood from a stone. In less than two years, American's parent company, AMR, has lost $3.2 billion, and revenue has taken a dive. So, what's left for the flight attendants to demand?
U.S. airline passenger revenue fell in October, completing a full year of dismal monthly performances. From October 2008 to October 2008, passenger revenue dropped 15 percent, according to calculations by the Air Transport Association. The study was based on a sample group of more than 24 air carriers. Falling ticket prices are said to be the problem ... which means we can trace it back to household finances, throwing the job market into the mix.
With unemployment now above 10 percent, consumers are being careful with their extra cash (if they have any), and dropping cash on plane tickets is pretty difficult. Hey, that's why more people are driving this year than in the past.
In October, the number of people flying on U.S. airlines fell 3 percent, and the average price to fly one mile dropped 13.5 percent. Basically, the number of people flying hasn't fallen much, but they're demanding much better pricing for their business. Airlines have to take it on the chin in order to bring any revenue in the door at all.
Maybe the flight attendants should start talking to the cockpit, too. When a plane overshot Minneapolis last month because the crew was playing around with personal laptops, national attention turned to what actually goes on in the front of the plane. Congress is kicking around the idea of a new bill that would kick personal electronic devices from the cockpit.
Unsurprisingly, the pilots and airlines aren't crazy about the idea. They say that the measure would impede progress by making innovation less accessible. Scott Schleiffer, a cargo pilot who's also thrown some brain time at safety issues for the Air Line Pilots Association, told USA Today, "We would like to have access to tools, and as tools evolve, we would like to have better tools."
FAA chief Randy Babbit agrees, saying, "We need to be very careful," in regards to the prohibition of personal devices in the cockpit.
Airlines are starting to bring new technology into the cockpit, with laptops and other devices used to improved weather and safety information. The devices aren't all that different from what distracted the Northwest pilots who missed Minneapolis. JetBlue has issued laptops to pilots, which are used to push through calculations during takeoff and landing. But, the airline doesn't allow personal use of them.
Thanksgiving is right around the corner, and we're all dreading the thought of stepping on the scale the next day ... and making all kinds of empty promises about jogging and losing weight and not eating like that again next year. Some of us we'll even unleash a stream of profanities and accuse the device of lying. Out in Queens, however, a few scales have been tested, and they won't be fooling anyone at turkey-time.
Inspectors from the Department of Consumer Affairs have verified that the 741 luggage scales at New York's JFK and LaGuardia airports. On the first run, 92 percent were found to be in compliance, and following repairs, a re-inspection showed a 98 percent success rate. The remaining 2 percent? Don't worry: they won't be used until they've been repaired.
With the extra fees that can be triggered by hefty bags, this is a pretty serious issues, especially in a market where airlines are trying to pick up a little extra revenue and consumers have become sensitive to additional charges.
The government doesn't want to make you miserable! Seriously. The Department of Homeland Security wants faster airport screening just as much as you do. That's why it supports a program for screening approved, low-risk travelers coming to the United States to most international airports. The new approach has been tested for more than a year at seven airports, and screening time dropped from 10 minutes to only three.
To participate in this program, you need to be either a U.S. citizen or permanent resident -- and more than 14 years old. There's a $100 fee (which is probably worth it), and you have to submit to a background check. If you're accepted, the customs process when you get back to the United States won't be so bad. If all goes well, the program will eventually be open to foreigners who come from countries that have a sufficiently solid screening process.
Now, DHS, is there anything you can do to speed up all those logjams at domestic security checkpoints!
If you visited the United States from overseas, you probably hit the ground in one of 15 ports of entry. These top first stops accounted for 84 percent of all entries from overseas in the first eight months of 2009-- up almost 2 percentage points from the same period in 2008, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce. Traffic through the major ports is becoming slightly more concentrated. This doesn't include visits from Canada and Mexico.
New York JFK, Miami and Los Angeles continue to be the top three ports of entry for overseas visitors. Through August, these locations accounted for 39% of all arrivals from overseas, an increase of a percentage point from last year. Miami was the only one of these three to post a year-over-year increase, and it was joined only by Orlando MCO, Philadelphia and Fort Lauderdale. Meanwhile, 11 of the top 15 ports of entry posted decreases in arrivals. This is hardly surprising, given that visits to the Untied States from overseas are down 9 percent so far this year.
Chicago was hit particularly hard, losing 18 percent of its entry traffic and moving into #7 on the list, behind Honolulu. Detroit lost 36 percent of its inbound visitor share, falling to #16 -- after Boston, Philadelphia and Fort Lauderdale.

Visits from outside the United States continued their slide in August. The U.S. Department of Commerce reports that 5.4 million people visited the United States from other countries in August this year. Unfortunately, that's a drop of 9 percent from August 2008. And, the smaller number of people is spending less money when it comes here. In August 2009, international visitors spent $10 billion. This sounds like a lot, but it's off almost 21 percent from last year. For the first eight months of this year, spending by foreign visitors reached $79.5 billion, down 17 percent year-over-year. The fact that the year-to-date decline isn't as bad as what we saw in August suggests that the situation has been worsening.
Trends in visits from Canada and Mexico are consistent with the global trend. Canadian visits fell 6 percent in August and are off 8 percent for the year through August. Meanwhile, visits from Mexico surged in August, gaining 23 percent, with land arrivals up 37 percent and air arrivals down 7 percent. This wasn't enough to change the situation for the year, however. For the first eight months of 2009, visits from Mexico fell six percent relative to the same period in 2008.
After a year of "travel slumps," "staycations" and other cringeworthy words and conditions, let's plan to get out on the road next year. Hey, economists are saying that the recession's already over, and the job market's recovery can't be too far behind. So, there's your motive. Opportunity? That's your vacation time; you probably have enough. All that's left to pull the perfect trip together are the means ... which Intrepid Travel is happy to provide.
Intrepid Travel has big news for next year, from green travel to exciting excursions in Iceland and North Africa. So, if you're looking for some ideas for 2010, check out the five below. Intrepid's definitely making it interesting.
1. Travel green: carbon offset
Intrepid Travel is moving more than 500 of its trips to "Carbon Offset" next year. In 2009, the company played around with the idea on 38 excursions, after having announced in December 2006 that it wanted to be carbon neutral by the end of 2010. With next year's offering, Intrepid is certainly making progress.
2. Timor-Leste: tops for adventure
Spend 15 days in Dili and its markets, trekking out to Mt. Ramelau and wandering the Suai-area rainforest. Timor-Leste hasn't been swamped with tourists yet, redefining "off the beaten path." If you're looking for the sort of experience where Intrepid excels, this is it.
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